Quintin Jardine's blog

Having been distracted by the Biden saga, which is over until he decides to resign and hand the White House to Kamala so that she can run as incumbent, I am turning my attention back to Westminster and the Tory shambles.

All I can see so far is squabbling, not only between potential leadership candidates, but among the depleted rank and file MPs who have yet to agree how a contest should be run.

I have a solution to offer them. Don’t have a contest. My sense is that now that the election is over, there is an undercurrent of sympathy for Rishi Sunak. There is also a growing acknowledgment that he inherited an impossible job from the unlamented Truss and her disgraced predecessor. No, his declaration in the rain was not a good look, but I would blame that on the advisers who let him do it that way rather than at the indoor lectern,

Of all the people who are likely contenders, I don’t see one who will unite the party and advance its cause. Therefore Rishi, why not let it be known that you will stay on for at least two years?

You can be a constructive leader of HM Opposition, let the dust settle (or the rain stop), give Cruella a job to shut her up (Shadow SofS for levelling up since nobody really knows what the **** that means) and allow your party to heal and realign in a calmer atmosphere.

When the next election comes into sight, say 2027, then you can take a collective decision on the way forward. How’s that for an idea?

The Trump campaign team may be rubbing their hands at the prospect of a Harris candidacy, but as an outsider it seems to me that race and gender are no longer deciding issues in American politics.

The last time Trump ran, he lost as America elected a black woman, on the ticket as Vice President. In 2008 and 2012 it elected a black man. In 2016 Hillary Clinton polled more of the popular vote than Trump, but won fewer Electoral College delegates.

With Biden out of the picture attention will now turn to Trump’s age. He may be sound now, but he is in decline. If he is elected how will he be when he is two years older than Biden is now, and still in office?

I don’t like to go public with my feelings about US politics, because I have American family and friends on either side of the fence and find it better to sit on it. But …

Until tomorrow I am the same age as Donald Trump. Would I feel comfortable about running for office today? Yes. If I did and I could would I vote for myself? No.

Last night’s US debate was supposed to determine, among other things, the fitness for office of the two candidates. The general consensus is that Joe Biden failed to do that, spectacularly. Today his spinners are hard at work, claiming that it was only an off night, and that he had a cold. Maybe he did, but the job for which he is running doesn’t allow for that. The incumbent has to be on the ball seven days a week, and perform dynamically regardless of the state of his sinuses.

Whatever, the bottom line is this: the issue is not only how the candidates are now, it’s how they will be in four years time. That’s why I couldn’t responsibly vote for myself. On that basis could any elector place their security in Biden’s hands? I don’t see how.

Could they take a chance on a 78-year-old Trump, all other issues aside? If he is re-elected, halfway through his term he will be the age that Biden is now.

I’m the last guy in the world to encourage ageism, but if I was a US Democrat, I would be saying ‘Joe must go. The devil’s at the door.’

To be replaced by? That’s their business, but I would look for and have in place someone much younger, charismatic and possibly with no political back story. I can think of a couple of possibilities but for now, let’s watch that space and see what happens over the next month or so.

Those who know me well are aware that in the Thatcher era I worked for the party of the great and good.

Then, behind Atilla the Hen, its stars included Geoffrey Howe, (I have a memory of him having a fag and an Irn Bru with the late, wonderful, Margot Macdonald) Michael Heseltine, (possibly the best Prime Minister we never had), love him or hate him, the incredibly brave Norman Tebbit, and the charismatic Cecil Parkinson.

Yes, there were some at the other end of the scale. The last two Tory Secretaries of State, pre-Holyrood, for example, men I would cheerfully have followed into withering gunfire. (Until they were past the point of no return: then I would have wished them a cheerful farewell and exited stage right.) And another, a Defence Secretary in the first Maggie administration, who was less acceptable in my view than a turd at a dinner party.

But never at any point back then did I ever imagine that those people would be succeeded by such a car crash as the one we are witnessing now.

I’m trying to find a bright side to look on, but all I can think of is Monty Python.

Watching Rishi read his suicide note my partner asked me why he wasn’t under an umbrella. ‘That,’ I told her, ‘is the fault of a man called Steve McClaren.’

A bad night for the Tories in England for sure, but before the rest get too excited: much is being made of Labour’s win in Blackpool South, but nobody is making anything of the fact that the Labour winner polled around 1500 fewer votes than its candidate in the 2019 general election.

Fact is that angry Tory voters stayed at home or voted for Reform, a fledgling right wing party that may help deliver a massive left wing majority nationally later this year.

For me, the other major losers in Blackpool were the shameless Lib Dems, who actually achieved a negative swing.

Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, has declared that the people must decide who leads Scotland.

I had time for the guy until I read that, for there are a couple of gaps in his logic. When his party fulfilled its manifesto promise in 1999 by setting up the Scottish Parliament, the voting system was put in place in the expectation that there would never be a majority administration, and that if by some chance there was it would always be Labour.

In fact ‘the people have decided’ only once, when the SNP won 69 seats out of 129. On every other occasion we have had a minority government, or a deal cobbled together behind closed doors.

And then there’s Anas’s own position. Did the people vote for him? I don’t think so.

www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/23/rishi-sunak-dementia-adviser-resigns-over-treatment-of-unpaid-carers

Now that Rishi has made it illegal to sell tobacco products to anyone born after 2009, without the population rising up en masse to protest against such despotic legislation, is there a case for applying the same principle to wacky baccy and Peruvian marching powder?

Take note, Sir Keir, when your time comes. You could even extend it to Marmite. Who knows, that might make you popular.

So here’s how I see things playing out. The Tories lose all three by-elections. A little over a year from now there will be a general election. By that time Boris will have found himself a safe seat.

The poll results in a change of government, with a coalition or a minority administration, Rishi resigns. Boris runs for leader and wins. The minority government collapses. There is a general election, and …

I see that in Scotland we have a Circular Economy Minister. That reminds me of the mythical bird that flew in ever decreasing circles until it disappeared up its own arse. Hopefully that will come to pass.

I’m crying quietly into my cereal for those poor people who were bullied by Dominic Raab.

For the record, I spent nearly all of the 1970s in the Civil Service, as a press officer. We worked closely with Ministers, including Willie Ross, who had a fiery reputation but was actually a fine man. I never met one who could have been described even remotely as a bully.

The Civil Service itself, that was another matter. My unit was led by a man who was a bully of the first order. He was not alone. At the top levels there were tales of phones being thrown out of windows. I’m sure things have improved since then, but even now if the benchmark by which Raab was judged was applied across the board within the Service itself, I am sure there would be more than a few heads rolling along Whitehall.

The media, and the irrelevance that is John Swinney, are insisting that Kate Forbes has destroyed herself by opening up about her religious views, which are, let’s say, traditionalist. However the media will not have votes in the SNP leadership election, and Swinney will only have one. What does the silent majority believe? We’ll find out when their votes are cast.

I do not belong to Nicola Sturgeon’s party but my admiration for her as a politician has grown throughout her time in office as First Minister.

That was underlined today by the manner of her resignation announcement. It was eloquent, dignified and above all graceful. When set alongside the departures of recent UK Prime Ministers, the contrast could not be greater.

Love her or hate her she’ll be a hard act to follow.